Відео

Kotkin’s ironic ( or is it sarcastic) sense of humor is always a delightful surprise. Not having dinner with Putin these days? Unlike all those public commentators who claim to know Putin’s thinking. 🥹

47:60 Nailed it. If you can't be bothered to listen to the whole thing, listen to the 5 minutes around this and you'll understand why we need to be listening to this guy and why it is so damaging that politicians on both sides of the Atlantic are deaf to this message and how tragic this is going to be to us all over the next 5 to 10 years. Again, thank you Stephen.

This is the best opinion yet on world affairs so far. How Russia can win in Ukraine is obvious now. They're making money on it. Period! Why stop, when everyone is getting rich. And they have unlimited manpower. Etc.

People disagreeing with Kotkin on the treaty/armistice question are missing the point entirely - yes, Russia is not trustworthy and will strive all they can to renege on any deals, but at least creating a temporary deal where the accession of Ukraine into NATO and the EU occurs would make any Russian gains or trickery meaningless. This why the definition of "victory" is so important; a situation where Ukraine takes back land and is locked in a forever war is not better than one where the voluntarily sign away land but gain the protections and prosperity required to rebuild in the West that Putin wants to move Ukraine away from.

I like this mans meanings of words. Great minds 😊

Spectacular interview. Many thanks for this to all involved.

❤️❤️❤️

Stop Netanyahu now, USA.

The idea that international law has ever been applied to the steady colonisation of Palestine is naive and even laughable (if it wasn't so tragic) Also if I kick someone out of their house and then make it a house rule that what I did was fine , that doesn't count as a rule/law

I don't think Kotkins i maintaining that Putin would honor any treaty or even an armistice agreement, but that the Ukraine will fare better with negotiation and bargaining than with battling on the ground for territory and political control of the contested oblasts

Joe Pesci is great at foreign relations! Fugettaboutit! Who knew? Tell you what though. Sounds like home to me.

I'm not really sure why mr Kotkin thinks russia would hold to any "peace agreement" that does not give them all or most of what they demand, why would they keep to that agreement even if they gained what they demand, or why he thinks such a "peace" that allows Ukraine to keep its sovereignty or ability to eventually join NATO is even any kind of an option. Its like thinking isis will keep to some agreement. In perpetuity. Considering all he knows about russia, which he explains in several great videos... this idea of "winning the peace" by loosing the war, or conceding defeat in any amounts, is surprisingly weird and even practically delusional.

KOTKIN'S ANALYSIS IS ALWAYS GERMANE AND HE SEES THE BIG PICTURE BOTH GEOPOLITICALLY AND HISTORICALLY..

Stephen is always incredibly insightful. Great interview.

This is the problem with "academics". As a politician, you can play and say that each region has its "truth". But at least in theory, you established a universal code of behavior when you founded the UN. Satisfying all the aberrations of all the mads is not the world you want to live in. Do we have other choices? Not if politics will not change and just accept "diversity" and "real-politik".

Why does Ashley expect India to do what the US wants, India will do what is good for India. US always ditches its allies. It created China to counter Russia. Ashley talks soo much. Its is useless analysis.

Kotkin sounding just like another NeoCon. Russia tried to meld with the West after the Soviet collapse. In return, the US and NATO reneged on the US promise to not expand NATO. This aggression or failure to recognize the difference between the new Russia and the collapsed USSR pushed Russia to ally with enemies of the West.

I like Kotkin. Kotkin is our friend.

The regime is strong but brittle, that seems to me to be a contradiction.

I feel politically suppressed by the political parties we have in our democratic system in the USA. As you say, they can screw up everything...

Mr. Kotkin always has something insightful to say, he is great!

Stephen Kotkin: Automatic thumbs up 🎉🎉🎉

Winning the peace with Putin by allowing him to keep annexed territory is just a wonderful gift to your brutal invader. He can then build up his economy over the next few years, but for Russia that means their war economy. Weapons and arms would also be built up to ensure outright victory on the next attempt to Russify the whole of Ukraine. Putin had made it clear on many occasions that he does not recognise Ukraine as a country, but that it can only be regarded as a part of Russia as it was.

29:01 I do not understand in what sense the present day West lacks illiberal, but anti-communist regimes. Even if we lack them, it seems like it would be easy--via diplomacy and propaganda--to turn them against the Reds.

Brilliant, as ususal.

Stephen provides the best thought out political analysis of both the situation in Ukraine and the global realities that I have ever heard…….should be in every President’s think tanks……..

Posen is trying to sell a narrative that won't explain the GFC but Pettis' theory does. Chinese underconsumption causes excess reserve accumulation and purchase of agency MBS, pushing CDOs. It's that simple.

A great interview!

Humorous to hear "russia" and "deal" in the same sentence.

Insightful interview from FA as always

There was never any real peace treaty on the table. What Kotkin doesn't talk about is that Russia is a trickster, it had a number of peace treaties with Ukraine and didn't respect any single one of them. Any such treaty would bind Ukraine, but it wouldn't bind Russia in any way, because they don't care about what's written in any of these treaties. Russia would just catch its breath and keep fighting. Knowing all of this very well, Kotkin still decides to lie into our faces.

If russia does not want to become the vassal of CCP, then why isn't the west enable russia to join the NATO?

With due respect to Kotkin, why does je not acknoledge the role US businesses in the name of capitalism destroyed the economy of russia after the wall fell.

We the people….in my travels over my life and in talking to the people in many countries without exception all want to be safe, housed, free (in thought, spiritually) have education for their children. Where this all ‘goes south’ is when political and religious ideals and human lust for power and greed is imposed on the populace. The west must be strong in projection of the principles that uphold those of we the people’. The principle of osmosis although slow should take over. No one wants to live in tyranny.

Since when capitulation is seen as ending the war "on favourable terms"???

The Ukraine conflict is one of ‘global rules based order’ against fascism. If Ukraine loses the war, and gains by the invader are ceded (even if not recognised) to the invader the rules based order loses and dictatorships/authoritarians will be emboldened. We need a strong NATO/AUKUS and west in general to thwart bully tactics and invasion of sovereign nations and international recognised borders. Ukraine must win the ground war and winning is defined as the return of pre-2014 borders.- no less. We (the global coalition of countries subscribing to a rules based order future) must partner (and we are). The US is a senior partner. History tells us that appeasement and an isolationist US leads to global conflict. This coalition is in all our interests. Europe and UK are stepping up. Strategic ambiguity is necessary. “if we give the Ukrainians what is needed to win, the Ukrainians will finish the job”. Slave Ukraini.

Stopped listening after “terrific victories” of Biden admin and complete ignorance of the fact that ALL weapons were delayed or never given with stupid excuses. With such fake experts pushing russian agenda I completely understand why the West is failing this war with hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians dying as we speak. Don’t forget that Ukraine was disarmed by the US (Clinton, Obama admins) when it was actually the bully russia that must have been disarmed to never threaten peace in Europe ever again.

The problem with these kinds of analyses is that they are based on the notion that India is not mature enough to make their choices based on some fundamental worldviews and its own strategic position in the world. India has to chart its own course and in a self assured, confident way - why is that so unnatural.

📍36:17 2📍 30:16

What is the difference between Iran and Saudi Arabia?

Russias murky future makes the future of the western states not brighter. Europe is driven down by the sanctions. In Ukraine are not even "fake" elections possible. In Vietnam the USA would have won the peace mor easily without or with less war. The alliance with the Prime Minister Ngô Đình Diệm of South Vietnam was a mistake. Ho Chi Min was studied in France and he was at the beginning more an liberation figther than a communist. Ngô Đình Diệm wanted perpetuate the colonial regime of the French, who were forced to retire from their colonies in Southeast Asia. Ngô Đình Diệm was the worst Proxy that the USA could have chosen: brutal to the people, undermining the US-Forces with drugs, proliferation of the US-weaponery etc.. Finaly the USA/CIA had to get rid of him. But also his death could not save the situation. Ho Chi Min searched first help from the USA, what was refused because of France, the colonial power and ally of the USA in WWII. The liberation motivation was higher than the "red fear" in Vietnam and the movement get help from willing partners, from the USSR and from China. So the Vietnamese liberation movement became the Vietcong. I am only an average old men in Europe and not an Expert. But I think, Wolodymyr Selenskyj ist 100% the wrong person, more like Ngô Đình Diệm than a democratic leader and Ukraine shares no western value at all. Alexej Nawalny was a discovery of MI6, a person with charisma. But he was an right right extremist and to give him a new image failed - in Russia, in the West it was successful. Fazit: the Western sanctions against Russia and the Western russophobia helped Putin, to get rid of the oligarchs, to stregthen national cohesion and the Russian industrial base. The western destruction of marriage, family and traditional value disagree most of the average people, even in the west ist cancel cultur and wokism accepted only by the elites and only if it serves political aims. US-President Biden was most succesful in destroying the worldwide believe in western values. During the Vietnam War: If "we" do not stop the Vietcong in Asia, we will have it sure in California and the wohl West! That believed nobody, at least they, who preached such nonsense. Putin or Russia will have the Ukraine as buffer zone to NATO - not more, not less. Propaganda or not propaganda: Russia is the weakest of the actual great powers USA, China und soon also India. NATO is an existential threat for Russia and all Russians, also for Putins political enemys. Would Nawalny had given Crimea etc. back to Selenskyj or Ukraine? Never. Will the most Crimeans rejoin Uraine again and live under the suppression of their language, culture and political discrimination? Never. Triple wages and pension are better for the average men then to die for NATO expension. The USA got used to solve every "problem" in the whole world by military force and overtrow unliked regimes without conseqences. In my opinion this times are over for the next hundred years.

who knew Joe Pesci was so knowledgeable on Russia? brilliant stuff!

1. NGOs banned are the ones which were being funded by CIA and other deep states to act against Indian interests. So u r missing the point. 2. India sees Russia as a balancing power and needs to be strong to balance east and west. So India sees itself a part of partnership to govern Artic waters and it's oil resources and to have natural gas lines to India. 3. Russia has NEVER vetoed India in UN 4. US has attacked multiple countries across Mideast, west Asia and doesn't human rights come into picture there? 5. US scholars must understand that they can't police India while they have gone against human rights all of past 100 years. 5. India needs to become strong culturally, economically and politically for the best this world needs. Because we don't see world as a binary. We see it a place where everybody has a role to play and are equal.

The West wants Russia. Always has. The West can twist any argument but its goal is Russia. Why? Because, just because. Thats the Wests MO. Any peruse of history will teach that one consistant fact.

Let me know what the U.S. does when China reports plans for a military alliance with Mexico.

Turns out this guy can predict the future!

The World is a MAD HOUSE now, we say Putin is a criminal and if he come to a European country will be arrested and put to trial, and in the other hand the thinking brains say " do treaties with them, do deals with them and win peace" what a hell is this World will end to?! Russia WILL NOT be trusty EVER, let Putin and others see that this work and the humanity will end in decades to come, so arm Ukraine now and end this! No more Chamberlains!

Outstanding discussion 4:51

Nice piece. Stephen is sharp!

Budapest memorandum. Ukraine was really stupid to listen to Bill Clinton. This would not have happened if they had their nukes. I'm sure there are Ukrainians working on building new Nuclear Weapons. I wouldn't be surprised of a dirty bomb being delivered to Moscow if it does something stupid like blowing up nuclear power station. What do we do then?